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Piscine Cassandra
Nov. 3rd, 2006 10:25 pmoh, LJ, I can't stay away from you...I have too many random things that I feel called upon to impart to the ether...
Such as this response to an email forward that I sent to my marine ecologist/geo-engineer bro about depleting oceans...I thought he would respond with a reassuring "overblown crap" sort of message, because the numbers/projections seemed too dire, and I thought it was the usual news fear-mongering, like with oil reserves, etc. But, er, he didn't. He wrote:
"Honestly, most studies that don't show any data with their statistics or what they're based on are usually loads of crap. Even the best studies by the NMFS and others have produced such varied results that the "data" and "statistics" are useless in my opinion. However, I look at what things were like 50 years ago and compare them to today and want to cry. If the same change does continue for 50 more years natural marine fisheries will be in utter ruin. They simply won't exist. The ONLY marine life we'll be eating is farm-raised. I believe fisheries 100 years ago didn't have cycles, where for a couple years certain species boomed where others suffered great declines. Systems, including natural ones, strive for equilibrium. When perfect systems are disrupted (stressed), cycles are created. It's kind of like putting a weight on a spring. There will be oscillation when you add the weight, but the spring won't quite reach the point it was at without the weight at each peak of each oscillation. We see this in every commercial and recreational fishery today. Nothing was as good as it was "back in the days of old" say the old timers. What we experience fishing is very consistent with our spring with the weight. The spring has a period (the time it takes to complete one cycle) of a few seconds depending on the size of the weight. The fisheries have a period of years to decades, depending on the species and the level of pressure on it from commercial/recreational fishing, climate controls, and habitat condition. We've noticed that certain species rebound very well when pressure is reduced from them. Therefore this is the approach that marine managers and law makers take. We will fish until the fishery is obviously strained and hurting, then we will remove the pressure, put it on other fisheries in the mean time, and let the other fishery rebuild itself. This worked well with certain species for a time. The problem was, the fisheries weren't rebuilding themselves as fast as they thought. Catch methods improved drastically, political pressure increased immensely because more money was involved, and so marine management was forced to crack in favor of commercial fishing. In the case of the Atlantic Cod, which was once so thick they could be snagged just by lowering a hook to the bottom, the fishery did not rebound. It continued to decline after fishing pressure was reduced and noone knew why. Time to panic, right? We did. We put a stop on Cod fishing, but Canada didn't. They still had some decent fishing way north. But that soon ended too and Canada was forced to stop. Noone knew that Cod needed healthy numbers to feed. They are extremely smart fish. I learned this while using them for one of my studies. Even the little ones hunted as a pack. They used eachother to feed and took turns. Without other Cod, a school, the Cod were inneffective hunters and they starved to death. It's little suprise that when you did catch a Cod a few years ago it was emmaciated. Today Cod are rebuilding, albeit slower than everyone hoped. Limited fishing for them has resumed with the trade-off of the creation of "marine sanctuaries" where commercial fishing cannot be done. It is my opinion this is premature, but I understand the pressure management is under. Commercial fishing is a vicious 800lb Gorilla. The problem continues because we manage certain species well which thrive from time to time. There are good years for Stripers and bad years (we see the oscillation). When they do well it puts increased pressure on others who aren't doing well which aren't managed well and almost dissapear. Blowfish are almost non-existent now and noone talks about them. They've forgotten that just 30 years ago you could catch several at a time and fill coolers with them in no time. So what will we see?
Mark these words:
We will see what happened (is happening) to the Blowfish off New England happen to a lot of other species. These will be second order predators. Basically the slower growing, less active, less ferocious species. They will vannish. First order predator species (Bluefish, Stripers) will continue to be around, although oscillation will increase in time and amplitude (similar highs and lower lows). But perhaps worse, scavenger species such as skates, dogfish, and sea robins (all "junk fish") will EXPLODE in number. It will make foraging for other highly pressured species extremely difficult. This adds to the pressure to an already strained ecosystem. This effect is beyond the control of management and cannot be stopped. They don't recognize, nor have control over this fact. This will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Fisheries will crumble left and right. I don't think it needs 50 years."
OK. OK. to sum up....maybe you're not an enviroment-monitoring, granola-munching sort of person who particularly cares if there are a few cans on the side of the road, or if your water has an interesting acrid tang to it...but maybe you'll remember this before you head to Red Lobster or crack that can of tuna. With the recent WWF stats on endangered species that I also saw (they sent out a "SCARY" Halloween message to members that was, really, scary), inaction and vague sentiment really aren't cutting it anymore.
Such as this response to an email forward that I sent to my marine ecologist/geo-engineer bro about depleting oceans...I thought he would respond with a reassuring "overblown crap" sort of message, because the numbers/projections seemed too dire, and I thought it was the usual news fear-mongering, like with oil reserves, etc. But, er, he didn't. He wrote:
"Honestly, most studies that don't show any data with their statistics or what they're based on are usually loads of crap. Even the best studies by the NMFS and others have produced such varied results that the "data" and "statistics" are useless in my opinion. However, I look at what things were like 50 years ago and compare them to today and want to cry. If the same change does continue for 50 more years natural marine fisheries will be in utter ruin. They simply won't exist. The ONLY marine life we'll be eating is farm-raised. I believe fisheries 100 years ago didn't have cycles, where for a couple years certain species boomed where others suffered great declines. Systems, including natural ones, strive for equilibrium. When perfect systems are disrupted (stressed), cycles are created. It's kind of like putting a weight on a spring. There will be oscillation when you add the weight, but the spring won't quite reach the point it was at without the weight at each peak of each oscillation. We see this in every commercial and recreational fishery today. Nothing was as good as it was "back in the days of old" say the old timers. What we experience fishing is very consistent with our spring with the weight. The spring has a period (the time it takes to complete one cycle) of a few seconds depending on the size of the weight. The fisheries have a period of years to decades, depending on the species and the level of pressure on it from commercial/recreational fishing, climate controls, and habitat condition. We've noticed that certain species rebound very well when pressure is reduced from them. Therefore this is the approach that marine managers and law makers take. We will fish until the fishery is obviously strained and hurting, then we will remove the pressure, put it on other fisheries in the mean time, and let the other fishery rebuild itself. This worked well with certain species for a time. The problem was, the fisheries weren't rebuilding themselves as fast as they thought. Catch methods improved drastically, political pressure increased immensely because more money was involved, and so marine management was forced to crack in favor of commercial fishing. In the case of the Atlantic Cod, which was once so thick they could be snagged just by lowering a hook to the bottom, the fishery did not rebound. It continued to decline after fishing pressure was reduced and noone knew why. Time to panic, right? We did. We put a stop on Cod fishing, but Canada didn't. They still had some decent fishing way north. But that soon ended too and Canada was forced to stop. Noone knew that Cod needed healthy numbers to feed. They are extremely smart fish. I learned this while using them for one of my studies. Even the little ones hunted as a pack. They used eachother to feed and took turns. Without other Cod, a school, the Cod were inneffective hunters and they starved to death. It's little suprise that when you did catch a Cod a few years ago it was emmaciated. Today Cod are rebuilding, albeit slower than everyone hoped. Limited fishing for them has resumed with the trade-off of the creation of "marine sanctuaries" where commercial fishing cannot be done. It is my opinion this is premature, but I understand the pressure management is under. Commercial fishing is a vicious 800lb Gorilla. The problem continues because we manage certain species well which thrive from time to time. There are good years for Stripers and bad years (we see the oscillation). When they do well it puts increased pressure on others who aren't doing well which aren't managed well and almost dissapear. Blowfish are almost non-existent now and noone talks about them. They've forgotten that just 30 years ago you could catch several at a time and fill coolers with them in no time. So what will we see?
Mark these words:
We will see what happened (is happening) to the Blowfish off New England happen to a lot of other species. These will be second order predators. Basically the slower growing, less active, less ferocious species. They will vannish. First order predator species (Bluefish, Stripers) will continue to be around, although oscillation will increase in time and amplitude (similar highs and lower lows). But perhaps worse, scavenger species such as skates, dogfish, and sea robins (all "junk fish") will EXPLODE in number. It will make foraging for other highly pressured species extremely difficult. This adds to the pressure to an already strained ecosystem. This effect is beyond the control of management and cannot be stopped. They don't recognize, nor have control over this fact. This will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Fisheries will crumble left and right. I don't think it needs 50 years."
OK. OK. to sum up....maybe you're not an enviroment-monitoring, granola-munching sort of person who particularly cares if there are a few cans on the side of the road, or if your water has an interesting acrid tang to it...but maybe you'll remember this before you head to Red Lobster or crack that can of tuna. With the recent WWF stats on endangered species that I also saw (they sent out a "SCARY" Halloween message to members that was, really, scary), inaction and vague sentiment really aren't cutting it anymore.
